Why success in the u23 ranks really matters

One of the most often used clichés in pro cycling says that results in the u23 ranks don't necessarily translate to the pros. For example, fan A might say: "Just because rider B won race C, there is no guarantee that he will become a champion at the top level".
Well, that statement is true. There is no guarantee. I believe however that there is an extreme correlation between results in the u23 ranks and success at the pro level. Let me explain you why.

First of all, you won't get a pro contract in professional cycling unless you are very good at a young age (or you have a brother of the calibre of Peter Sagan). Cycling is a sport that takes extreme dedication - and time. You need to train a lot just to be competitive which simply cannot be accomplished if you have to work as a police officer along the way. That is why there is an almost unfair advantage for pro cyclists compared to amateur riders and the reason it is almost mandatory to get a pro contract as a young rider.
Sounds reasoned, doesn't it? But out of the riders who actually get a pro contract, why should there be an advantage for the more successful ones?
This one is easy. Although the public might sometimes forget, cycling is still a team sport. Every leader can only accomplish so much on his own. Almost every one of the top riders in cycling has a strong team these days but there are some exceptions. One if not the most prominent one is Peter Sagan who always struggled to win at Cannondale because his team was to fragile to bring back late attackers. He then had to chase them on his own which tired him out for the final sprint.
So as a neo pro you simply want to get into the strongest team there is, right? Not exactly. The problem with being part of a major player like BMC is that you won't get many chances to ride for your own glory. In the beginning you will have to work for the more seasoned leaders. At least that is the case if you come in with a low standing like Manuel Senni did roughly a year ago. It is much different if you come in with the palmarès of a Stefan Küng or Dylan Teuns. Is it coincidence that those two were some of the best riders in the u23s and only a year later an important part of the BMC racing team with Küng even being selected to ride in the gold medal winning worlds TTT team? I don't think so.

Don't get me wrong. I don't argue the fact that not every winner in the u23 will become a winner at pro level. That is obviously impossible given the fact that there are way to few pro races compared to the amateur races all over the world.
I just want you to think about this article the next time fan A says: "This Vervaeke guy is really a bust. He was amazing in the u23s, but he just doesn't have what it takes to be a pro. On the other hand, this Woods guy came out of nowhere. He only began biking a few years ago. That underlines the fact that results in the u23 ranks don't translate to the pros." Because when you think about it, you will realise that Vervaeke really struggled with injuries during last season and is just now getting healthy. You will realise that Woods was a North American record holder in track running before turning to cycling. And you will realise that these two things take nothing away from the fact that being successful in the u23 ranks is the single best way to launch the career of a cycling champion.